shadow stats australia

Holding Physical Gold Protects the Purchasing Power of Dollar Assets, Irrespective of Any Near-Term Volatility in, or Manipulation of, Gold Prices, October 2020 Cass Freight Index Turned Positive Year-to-Year, Gaining 2.4% Against an Unusually Sharp, Unseasonable Decline the Year Before Apparently, neither has the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as detailed in an article by BLS economists John Greenlees and . That circumstance is reviewed in pending ShadowStats Benchmark Commentary No. That also was in context of a deepening shortfall against its Pre-Pandemic Peak by 1.46% (-1.46%) in 1q2023, versus a 1.22% (-1.22%) shortfall in 4q2022. For the Second Straight Month, Payrolls Declined Year-to-Year by 6.0% (-6.0%) April 2020 Pandemic/Economic Trough Revised Lower by 5.1% (-5.1%) Yet, Fourth-Quarter 2020 New-Home Sales Contracted, as Did Real Retail Sales, Suggestive of Consumers Facing Intensifying Pandemic and Liquidity Issues A similar pattern is likely with the Census Bureaus May 1st release of March 2023 nominal Construction Spending, given the activity patterns and related needed inflation-adjustments already in play. 1461. I also have, This material is provided under the ShadowStats.com. Underlying Economic and Labor Numbers through November Indicate Contracting or Flattening Fourth-Quarter 2020 GDP, Well Shy of Economic Recovery ShadowStats' John Williams: Why inflation now is really 13. - YouTube Nov 26, 2013 Housing Starts delayed again. Noted the by the U of M, Despite the increasingly negative news on business conditions heard by consumers, their short and long-run economic outlook improved modestly balanced by worsening assessments of personal finances due to higher expenses, reflecting the ongoing pain stemming from continued high prices. [Go to http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu for the full details.]. (13) April 12th (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Further definition is provided in our CPI Glossary. Economic Recovery Is Not as Close as Hyped by the Consensus Outlook Headline March 2023 Producer Price Index (PPI) annual inflation dropped sharply from 4.9% in February 2023 to 2.8% in March 2023, due to the relative easing against the extreme oil and gasoline price spikes triggered by the year-ago Russian invasion of Ukraine. ET; Friday, May 5th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its estimates of April 2023 Unemployment and Employment (8:30 a.m. November New-Home Sales Collapsed by a Meaningful 11.1% (-11.1%) in the Month, On Top of Major Downside Revisions to Sales in Each of the Prior Three Months Where Pandemic Forced the Shutdown of the U.S. Economy in March 2020, FOMC Rate Hikes Already Had Strangled Business Activity -- The University of Michigans full-month release of the April 2023 Consumer Sentiment reading held little changed at 63.5, against its initial estimate of 63.5, up from 62.0 in March 2023, holding shy by 37.1% (-37.1%)[previously by 38.6% (-38.6%) in March] of ever recovering its February 2020 pre-Pandemic peak level of 101.0. For the month of February 2023, the real Deficit deepened to -l04.6 billion. Where monthly jobs growth in the key Manufacturing, Retail Sales and Construction Sectors has turned flat-to-minus, the Leisure and Hospitality Sector showed continued strong, albeit slowing monthly growth, still holding shy by more than 2% (-2%) of ever recovering its pre-Pandemic level of activity. (14) April 7th (Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS, and ShadowStats.com). Sales declined 22% from one year ago. The renewed monthly decline followed a 13.8% monthly jump in March, the first monthly gain since January 2022. Services include customized forecasts and analyses of the general economy, presentations and consultations in-house for clients. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Shadow TUAS can carry payloads up to 27kg (60lb) including sensors and electronic warfare systems. The aggregate Monetary Base often moves broadly on a parallel basis with the Money Supply, but it also can vary widely with the Money Supply, tied to the dominance of its movements triggered by Bank Reserves held by Federal Reserve Banks. Part I --BOTTOM LINE Systemically Dangerous and Perilous FOMC Activity is Likely in the Week Ahead. -- Noted regularly here, New Home Sales (likely the least-reliable, least-meaningful, least-significant and most heavily revised headline series published by the Census Bureau) continued to sink year-to-year. Again, full detail follows in the DAILY UPDATE e-mails and in pending No. Per the NAR Press Release, Existing-home sales retreated 2.4% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.44 million. Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation. That said, again, Fiscal Years 2021 and 2022 (FY 2021, FY 2022, FY 2023) circumstances and prospects have continued to deteriorate meaningfully, at an accelerating pace, from conditions at the end of FY 2020 (see the next paragraph), exploding anew into the still unfolding, disastrous FY 2023. Please contact johnwilliams@shadowstats.com for further details or any questions. -- In contrast, the ShadowStats Corrected Alternate-GDP estimate, adjusted for the continual understatement of headline GDP Inflation, and the corresponding continual overstatement of growth in the Real GDP, showed a corrected 1q2023 real annualized quarterly contraction of 0.98% (-0.98%), against a 0.50% 4q2022 gain, with an annual contraction of 0.49% (-0.49%) in 1q2023, against an annual drop of 1.16% (-1.16%) in 4q2022. The flight of cash to relatively greater liquidity and safety in the narrower Money Supply measures, specifically in Basic M1, saw March 2023 relative liquidity at a new 53-year high (Basic M1/M2) of 35.0%, since September 1970. The projected continuous rise of the debt-to-GDP ratio indicates that current policy is unsustainable. Allowing for the 2021 Unfunded Liabilities, reflected here, that Debt-to-GDP ratio already was 552% at the end of Fiscal Year 2021. That said, the aggregate series quarterly sales, have been in annual decline for each of the last seven quarters, up through the current 1q2023, in an otherwise deepening housing recession. Details and related graphs follow in the next Subscriber e-mail, with extended review and coverage of this Fed-acknowledged regular pattern of initial upside reporting and later downside benchmark revisions to this series, as otherwise pending in Commentary No. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. (8) April 18th, (Census Bureau). ET, May 23, 2023. March 2023 Money Supply numbers and historic tables have been posted and graphed to the ALTERNATE DATA TAB (see the Menu Bar above), with more extensive analysis, graphs and coverage following in the DAILY UPDATE e-mails and in pending Commentary No. Money Supply. Theoretically Equivalent Third-Quarter 2020 GDP (Product) and GDI (Income) Rebounded by Varying Annualized Quarterly Gains of 33.1% and 25.5%, Still Holding Far Shy of Economic Recovery From a revised -101.7 (previously -101.7) billion, from a revised -98.2 billion in December, its worst monthly showing since -112.4 billion in October 2022. Using the same data collection and calculation methodologies as the Bureau of Labor Statistics used in the 1980s, John Williams, the founder of ShadowStats, determined that headline inflation should be much higher than 5.4%, the latest June release. Shadow Government Statistics - RationalWiki The original Money Supply measure, Basic M-1 is defined as Currency plus Demand Deposits (checking accounts). In context of the ever evolving financial, inflation and economic circumstances, ShadowStats should post Commentary No. Separately, though, the Fed also purportedly has been reducing its balance sheet assets, which should slow or cut the Money Supply growth and inflation. Including Commercial Aircraft, aggregate New Orders recovered pre-Pandemic levels in Third-Quarter 2020. [Again, the E-Mail Updates are available to you as part of both new and existing regular subscription; just request it by e-mail from johnwilliams@shadowstats.com .]. Economic, FOMC, financial-market, political and social circumstances all continue to evolve along with the Pandemic and its aftermath in still-unfolding, extraordinary political circumstances. [Again, the E-Mail Updates are available to you as part of both new and existing regular subscription; just request it by e-mail from johnwilliams@shadowstats.com .] -- Headline Fourth-Quarter 2022 GDP inflation (Implicit Price Deflator [IPD}) came in at a revised third estimate of an annualized pace of 3.92% (previously 3.93% and 3.51%), against an unrevised 4.36% in 3q2022, and up by an unrevised year-to-year 6.41% (initially 6.30%), versus an unrevised 7.15% in Third-Quarter 2022, which remained at a 42-year high, outside of the recent inflation spike. Annual growth in Payrolls has been slowing since February 2022. The Countries With The Largest Shadow Economies [Infographic] - Forbes John Williams, founder of ShadowStats, calculates inflation using the same methodology that the government used to have for calculating the consumer price index (CPI). Republishing our charts: Permission, Restrictions and Instructions (includes important requirements for successful hot-linking) Shadow Cloud Gaming: What You Need to Know | Tom's Guide Indeed, setting up accelerating inflation or hyperinflation, current extreme Monetary and Fiscal stimuli likely will be expanded, not reduced. G E N E R A L .. H E A D L I N E S .. -- Contrary to the happy political and financial media hype, the Pandemic-driven and FOMC-exacerbated U.S. Economic Collapse continues to harden in protracted non-Recovery, amidst mounting evidence of renewed Economic Downturn and recent excessive Inflation, which is about to re-accelerate, and still vulnerable to evolving Russia-Ukraine War risks, seriously conflicted FOMC monetary policies, and extraordinarily dangerous Administration fiscal activity. Revised year-to-year growth slowed to 0.88%, from 0.91% and an initial estimate of 0.96%, versus 1.94% in 3q2022. Tax gap program summary findings | Australian Taxation Office Old Numbers Showed Production Peaked in December 2018 and Flattened Out, February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Peak Was 3.75% Higher Than the Pre-Great Recession Peak

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